We’re finally in the Fall season, and that means a few things in Pittsburgh:
Visiting Soergel Orchards for hayrides, apple picking, and finding the perfect pumpkin.
Getting spooked at Hundred Acre Manor.
Navigating another shift in the Pittsburgh real estate market.
But here’s the good news for potential buyers and sellers: The real estate market is incredibly predictable in the Fall.
And we’re about to tell you everything you need to know.
The Trends That Shape Pittsburgh Real Estate In the Fall
Every year, we see two things happen:
Interest rates grab headlines. And, like clockwork, the Fed just increased interest rates from 3.75% to 4%—which hints at a cooling economy.
People panic. Consumers are already tightening their belts from a busy summer, and now the kids are back in school. The holidays are right around the corner, and budgets are tight. With the increased interest rates, people are worried about their own buying power, and many cut back on spending.
And as the market slows down, mortgage rates rise. Anyone who was on the fence about house shopping suddenly thinks, Maybe we should wait until the Spring—when mortgage rates drop again.
The Hidden Advantages of Buying In Fall
It’s true that mortgage rates tend to be higher in the Fall than in Spring.
But houses also tend to be more affordable in the Fall. In fact, they could be 3%–5% higher in the Spring!
Take a look for yourself:
As the blue line shows, we typically see a $10,000–$20,000 cut to the median home prices in the last quarter of the year. That means your budget can still have a major impact on your buying power regardless of your mortgage rate.
To see that in action, consider this:
In late March this year, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.38%.
Now, in late September, it’s 6.95%.
Let’s say you bought a $250,000 house in March at 6.38%. With a conventional 30-year mortgage, your mortgage would be $1,560.49 per month.
Now, let’s buy that same house at 6.95%—but let’s take 5% off the asking price, so it only costs $237,500. At that point, your monthly mortgage becomes $1,572.13.
That’s less than a $12 difference!
As a buyer, you still have plenty of buying power.
Plus, inventory is higher than it’s been at this time of year since 2019.
As the chart shows, August inventory was at its highest level since the pandemic. That’s good news for buyers who want options!
How to Be A Competitive Homebuyer In the Fall
Time and time again, we catch buyers coming into the fall season with the wrong attitude. Many times, they think that this will be an easy season to buy, as there’s less competition.
That’s not quite the case. In fact, Fall buyers are often surprised at how much competition there is. And as we prepare for the Winter lull, we know inventory is only going to shrink.
In other words: Fall can be surprisingly competitive (though it’s certainly less competitive than the Spring market).
With that in mind, a “good deal” in the fall doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to find a house at 5% under market value.
Instead, you’re more likely to find a house for 2%–3% under market value, which is something that does not happen in the Spring market.
So, while Fall can still be a great time to buy (and to land in a new home for the holiday season), be mindful that it still has its hurdles to clear!
How to Be A Competitive Seller In the Fall
Although the Fall season favors buyers, you can still have a good selling experience and come out at a strong price point. Here’s some of the advice we offer our sellers around this time of year:
1. Stay Proactive. Buyers are decreasing around this time, and that means less competition to drive your prices up. Make your house irresistible. Give your home any necessary updates to avoid any red flags during the inspection.
2. Tell A Story. Another part of making your house irresistible is to help people imagine living there. We recommend full staging so your home really stands out.
3. Lean Into Fall. Pittsburgh wears Fall well, and this is your opportunity to leverage the season. Add some pumpkins to the front porch, use cinnamon fragrances in the house, and set up some mums for decoration.
4. Price Carefully. In the Spring months, we often recommend listing the home for 98%–100% of its value to grab attention and spur competing offers.
In the Fall, though, we recommend listing at 100%–102% of its value so you have some extra room to negotiate and can choose to offer a price drop (if necessary) without losing significant money on the home.
5. Market Strategically. This one is your real estate agent’s responsibility, but now is the time to use all marketing channels possible. And if you do decide to offer a price drop, you’ll need another round of effective marketing to really make the home compelling.
Find Support In the Fall
If you’re feeling overwhelmed by the Fall real estate market, contact us.
We can help you navigate the market as a buyer or a seller—while helping you get the best deal possible.
With a little luck, you can be fully moved in before the holiday season kicks off!
Cheers,
J&T